Turkey: Downside risks to growth
In the midst of a challenging (geo)political situation, we expect Turkish economic growth to slow somewhat to 3.4% this year but to accelerate from 2017 onwards. Further weakening of the Turkish lira is a risk however, because domestic political uncertainty is rising and monetary authorities are under pressure to loosen their policy. Turkey needs to manage this situation carefully to be able to attract the foreign direct investments that it depends on for economic growth. Rising income levels offer opportunities for companies that export to Turkey. On the other hand, the number of imposed measures that protect domestic producers far exceeded that of trade liberalisation measures in recent years. We expect imports to grow at an annual rate of 6-7% in US dollar terms through 2019.
Related to: Istanbul Turkije
Year published: 2016